Ex-Kia Australia boss: Traditional brands have just 'three years' to work out survival plans in battle with Chinese upstarts

Traditional carmakers will be involved in a survival fight in little more than three years thanks to the Chinese brands that are winning new friends every day in Australia.

The tsunami of new Chinese makes and models will leave existing brands fighting for little more than half of their current sales, according to the outgoing chief of Kia Australia.

Damien Meredith believes the Chinese onslaught will hit its first showroom target at least three years early, placing growing pressure on existing makes as their share of local sales drops rapidly.

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Meredith has made some inspired – and inspiring – moves on the automotive chessboard, but he is still looking to the future and preparing for the biggest shift in living memory.

Surprisingly, he’s not forecasting any sort of implosion or decimation for existing brands. He even believes there is a way for non-Chinese brands to survive. The key, he said, is to re-cut their businesses to cope with a massive drop in numbers. Meredith believes that could be as little as half the current totals, even for market leader Toyota.

“The facts are the facts, and here we are. It looks like within the end of this decade, 60 per cent of sales will be Chinese,” Meredith observes. “They are saying it’s 2032, but I think it will be sooner than that.

“It’s not armageddon. It’s competition. It’s opportunity. Is it going to take a lot of work? Bloody oath it will.

“If it’s a 1.2-million market, and the Chinese have got 720,000 cars, what you have to do is look at the segment that’s left. Say 500,000.

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“You’ve got to set your strategy to that. You know what the Chinese are going to do. There is still a pool of cars – so you have to ask yourself how to get your share. It’s not the death of other brands from other countries.”

His view is supported by the president and CEO of Ford Australia, although there is far less detail.

“He is probably right,” Fadi Mawal told WhichCar by Wheels during the company’s recent Ford Uncovered event in Melbourne.

Looking beyond Kia, Meredith had thoughts on many things around motoring in Australia. And the triggers for change.

“I think it’s two things – the NVES (New-Vehicle Efficiency Standard) and the surge of the Chinese in the last five years. They are the two major things,” he said.

“The third would be the decline of manufacturing in Australia. I think it’s sad that a country can only have civil engineers rather than an array of engineers.”

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Read Paul Gover’s full interview with Damian Meredith in the new October 2026 issue of Wheels (above), on sale now.