Starting with 49 new models released from late 2012, the contenders for the 2013 Wheels Car Of The Year eligibility list was whittled down car by car, until an ‘eligible’ list of 34 remained. From there, pencils were sharpened further, culling the contenders to reveal the 15 most impressive new models on offer. Here, then, are your Wheels Car Of The Year contenders.
Audi A3 Sportback: The A3 combines a stunning cabin and class-best quality with a sporty feel, while offering several drivetrains unique to its skill set.
Fiat Panda: Fiat’s lovable Panda is a compelling package, especially with its award-winning ‘Twin Air’ turbocharged two-pot.
Ford Kuga: The Kuga is the dynamic benchmark for soft-roaders, as well as being an effective, roomy family wagon.
Holden Commodore VF: Inviting the VF along provided the year’s most contentious debate. In the end, we decided its completely different feel and mostly new or modified internals were enough to gain entry.
Holden Trax: While the Trax may lack mechanical innovation, it makes up for it with packaging excellence and value-for-money.
Honda CR-V: The fourth-generation CR-V is cleverly packaged to be smaller outside yet larger inside, and should keep the Kuga honest.
Jaguar F-Type: For visceral grand-touring ability and explosive straight-line punch, few cars can match the supercharged Jag.
Lexus IS: Lexus’s third-generation IS sedan is headlined by the excellent four-cylinder IS300h hybrid and BMW-beating IS350 F-Sport.
Mazda 6: Available in Euro-sized wagon or US-sized sedan, with petrol and diesel options, the 6 will present a brilliant counterpoint to Holden’s VF Commodore.
Mercedes-Benz A-class: It’s not a futuristic technology-ticker like the old sandwich-floored car, but the new A does offer much in the way of drivetrain excellence, dynamic competence and interesting design.
Peugeot 2008: Peugeot’s 2008 offers an airy, SUV-like view, is light and offers a brilliant new petrol three-pot engine with brilliant dynamics.
Porsche Cayman: The latest Cayman is so talented, people are starting to wonder whether the legendary 911 is really worth the price premium.
Range Rover: Few cars in any category are as exquisite as the new Rangie, yet this is a luxury land yacht that has trimmed its waistline by 400kg while remaining peerless off road.
Renault Clio : Not only is the Clio IV fresh, innovative, stylish and fun, it brings with it a big slice of sophistication and completely new turbo-petrol drivetrains.
Volkswagen Golf: From the base model stunner to the brilliant GTI, the latest MkVII Golf has impressed in comparison testing throughout 2013.
With Mazda and Hyundai snapping away at its rear bumper there’s a very real chance the brand will drop to number four in the sales race – unchartered territory for the former dominant player.
RESULTS
Not reaching its potential. With little in the way of new – or at least refreshed – metal that will bring significant volume, and competitors years ahead in their plans and transformations, 2015 is not shaping up to be a great year for Holden. With Mazda and Hyundai snapping away at its rear bumper there’s a very real chance the brand will drop to number four in the sales race – unchartered territory for the former dominant player.
Rank: 2nd Sales*: 90,491 (-2.1%) 2014 sales forecast: 106,000 Wheels prediction for 2015: 4th *To end of October
YOU have to go back to 2002 to find when Holden last led the market, boasting 178,000 sales and a massive 21.6 percent market share. At the time it targeted a 25 percent share on the back of a new-model influx that was to include the born-again Monaro and the company’s inaugural locally produced SUV, the Adventra.
At the time Holden was selling more than 100,000 Commodore derivatives a year – that’s more locally produced cars than it will sell across its whole 15-model line-up this year.
These days, dreams of a 25 percent market share remain just that. In 2013 the company dipped below 10 percent share for the first time in its history.
The unexpected drop in the large-car market that took hold around 2004 has made life extremely tough for Holden. The billion-dollar-plus VE Commodore slated for 2006 was burdened with big expectations, some of which included exports and playing a part in the broader GM world with a modular rear-drive platform.
Then the GFC hit and GM was thrown into turmoil that even today it is struggling to recover from.
Throw in import tariff reductions (from 15 percent to 10 percent in 2005 and from 10 percent to 5 percent in 2010) and imports were suddenly cheaper, making the Commodore less attractive.
Holden’s sales slide was exacerbated by a switch from its European-sourced Opels (Barina, Astra and Vectra) to Korean-sourced Daewoos that had nothing like the driving dynamics, perception of quality and upmarket feel that people were programmed to expect from smaller Holdens.
Even today, Holden’s product portfolio is a predominantly Daewoo-sourced and off the pace of most rivals, with the occasional exception such as the Commodore that’s helped bolster sales since the VF arrived in mid-2013.
OPPORTUNITIES
IT’S a case of back to the future for Holden in 2015. Having shunned European cars on the basis of poor exchange rates, the company is reinstating a former nameplate darling, the Astra, to boost its small-car ranks.
Initially offered as a sporty GT (with a 1.6-litre turbo) and a flagship VXR (with a 2.0 turbo) Astra promises to add some refined sizzle to the brand’s bland imported line-up.
Those Astras have the potential to cannibalise sales of the locally produced Cruze small car, but with a planned 2017 manufacturing shutdown, executives appear keen to look beyond the short-term pain. Astra last sold here with a Holden badge in 2010, but briefly reappeared wearing a different badge in the shortlived Opel showrooms. In the not too distant future there will likely be a return of more affordable Astras.
Holden says more than one third of its future sales will be sourced from Europe; perhaps frustratingly for the brand the exchange rate is heading the wrong way, potentially making the business case harder – as it was a decade ago.
In 2015 Holden will also look to Europe for the Astra-based Cascada convertible as well as the Insignia, the next generation of which is likely to be the car that partially replaces the Commodore as Holden’s mainstream large car.
There will also be movement with existing models, with the Captiva 7 expected to get another facelift.
The much anticipated update to the Commodore – the last one before local production ceases towards the end of 2017 – should poke its head up before the end of the year.
The Cruze is also expected to get a decent facelift to help it keep pace with fast moving small rivals.
CHALLENGES
HOLDEN is not in a happy headspace, as witnessed by the sudden exit of its shortlived boss, Gerry Dorizas. The instability and the realisation that there’s not much in the way of fresh metal to tackle the new-model onslaught expected from rivals means Holden’s biggest challenge will be maintaining its place near the top of the strongest-selling brands.
The yet-to-be-announced new boss has a massive task to get the dealers back on side and rally the troops at the brand’s Port Melbourne HQ before taking on the bigger task of fleshing out the product portfolio – none one of which is conducive to growing sales in the short term.
One potential shining light is the imminent free trade agreement with Korea, which would allow for sharper pricing and/or more features on a large chunk of the Holden range – Barina, Barina Spark, Trax, Captiva and Malibu.
But it’s the external attacks that could hit hardest. Arch rival Ford is ready to unleash a barrage of new models, while Mazda, Toyota, Honda and others all have significant new arrivals throughout 2015. Throw in the ambition of Hyundai and Kia and the renewed focus from Nissan, and Holden is staring in the face of what will be a challenging year.
Oh yeah, then there’s the behemoth task bubbling away in the background of winding down two of the biggest production facilities in the country – the Port Melbourne engine plant and the South Australian production line.
The bold plan of returning to the top sales spot by 2020 seems like a distant and somewhat unachievable dream. The first step is to maintain the number two spot and improve the model line-up; even that appears a monumental task.
Grade: C
– Back to The Wheels Report results
RESULTS
An astute performer that listens, but can’t get complacent. Renewed vigour to Hyundai, unlikely to let up in 2015 with important new models and updates likely to boost brand further. Reputation is also in good stead thanks to now-proven reliability and good after-sales support. But without ute, Hyundai is limited in how far it can go, with number two the best it can hope for in medium term.
Rank*: 4th Sales*: 83,754 (+3.7%) 2014 sales forecast: 98,000 Wheels prediction for 2015: 3rd *To end of October
HYUNDAI built its name as the cheap car company in the 1990s with the well priced, well styled and colourful Excel. It once accounted for more than 70 percent of the brand’s sales, with the rest made up of other relatively cheap models. Back in the mid-1990s the then fledgling Korean brand had more than 8 percent of the Australian market – predominantly on the back of small cars. These days the brand’s market share hasn’t grown markedly – it’s currently at 9.1 percent – but its sales have, with expectations of almost 100,000 vehicles in 2014. Helping it is the fact Hyundai has diversified its product portfolio to a range that now includes light, small, medium, sporty coupe, two SUVs and commercial vans – as well as the Genesis luxury car that’s just gone on sale. It’s the result of more than a decade of work to move away from selling cars predominantly on price, where profit is slim and sales dry up the minute another brand follows suit. Speaking of which, that’s what Chinese car makers have been dabbling with in recent years – and there will be more to come. Hyundai clearly feels it’s turned the corner and people no longer see it as a cheap car company. The sales figures support the sentiment, with the Santa Fe a profitable success that has more buyers than cars, partly because it’s one of the few affordable seven-seat SUVs available with a diesel engine. It’s barged into a seven-seat SUV market once dominated by Toyota, Ford and Mazda. It’s also acclimatised some buyers to paying upwards of $50K for a Hyundai. The i20 is now the closest thing to that original Excel, and accounts for just 15 percent of Hyundai’s sales, with the i30 and its small car sedan sibling, the Elantra, commanding the biggest share.
OPPORTUNITIES
HYUNDAI has aspirations to increase sales by 50 percent over the next few years, and 2015 is key to kicking that off. First step is to replace the i20 entry-level hatch. Executives have crunched the numbers on the smaller i10, as well as the replacement for the i20, but exchange rates are not particularly favourable (the cars are sourced from Turkey). It’s the i10 shaping to be the most likely candidate and, if it happens, it’ll arrive in the first half of the year. The brand’s second-best seller, the ix35, is also due for replacement mid-year, bringing more mature styling that Hyundai hopes will arm it better against the CX-5s, RAV4s, Foresters and CR-Vs it scraps with. The return of the Sonata (the previous model was sold here with limited success as the i45) also happens in February, likely leading to a rejig of the i40 lineup that it is close to on size. There will also be facelifts for the Veloster coupe, Elantra hatch and smaller i30, each in the first half of the year, while the iMax (for people) and iLoad (for cargo) vans will get a tickle towards the end of the year.
CHALLENGES
THE Korean car maker is arguably the best placed to tackle the might of Toyota, but it lacks one key ingredient – a ute. It’s the only one of the top seven selling brands that doesn’t compete in a segment of the market that accounts for almost one in six sales. And executives are not expecting a trayback to pop off the boat any time soon (dealers would love one but despite internal number crunching there’s no approved program; something that would rely on enough global demand). The brand could also do with a compact SUV to sit below the ix35, but the ix25 is for China only, with the only hope a production version of the style-led Intrado concept shown earlier this year. Given the fragmentation of the small-car market – something likely to continue with the onslaught of small SUVs – that short-term lack of a compact SUV leaves Hyundai exposed at the lower end of the segment, which is where much of the growth potential slumbers. There could be an internal threat from Kia, too. The sister company to Hyundai underperforms in Australia, something that hasn’t gone unnoticed at the brand’s South Korean HQ. With a former Hyundai exec now at the helm the brand is keen to kick more goals, many of which should come from the value end of the market – largely where Hyundai already plays. In response, Hyundai is encouraging its 160-plus dealers to upgrade facilities in anticipation of higher volumes. Hyundai may soon have room to move on pricing, though, with the soon-to-be-implemented free trade agreement with South Korea. Most of its models are sourced from there, allowing for about a three percent price reduction, or additional equipment for the same price.
Grade: A
RESULTS
Once great at core subject, but staring out the window since. Plenty coming to the road but Ford still struggles to sell anything not built in Australia. HQ and dealers need to shift into top gear and convince shoppers to buy new arrivals, which could be harder than sounds.
Rank*: 5th Sales*: 67,924 (-6.2%) 2014 sales forecast: 79,500 Wheels prediction for 2015: 4th *To end of October
THE 21st century hasn’t been kind to Ford, a former top-selling brand. Despite the arrival of Australia’s first locally produced dedicated SUV, the Territory, and some seriously impressive Falcons, it hasn’t hooked buyers with its imported models. Over the last decade Ford has had to get used to a life without the might of its former sales darling, the Falcon. But customers have also largely shunned the Blue Oval when it comes to the Focus, Fiesta and Mondeo — all quality cars.
In 1996 Ford sold 91,786 locally produced cars (77,835 of which were Falcons) – more than it will sell of all 15 models in its 2014 line-up — despite the market growing 70 percent in the process. In short, Ford has shed market share quicker than Bert Newton has follicles. In 2014 the Fiesta is only the seventh best-selling light car, the Focus the sixth best-selling small car and the Mondeo fifth in the shrinking medium car category.
SUVs haven’t been much friendlier to Ford. The quirky EcoSport is an also-ran, while the Kuga is regularly pummelled by category big hitters.
Then there’s the Falcon, which has floundered in the decimated large-car category.
OPPORTUNITIES
NEXT year is shaping up to be H-U-G-E for Ford. The hope is that the just revived Falcon and Territory models will awake from their sales slumber, which has seen the former bounce from one record low for monthly sales to the next.
As well as a second-quarter update to the Focus (Ford’s second-best selling model) there’s an update to the Ranger, the ute that is the brand’s biggest seller.
The late 2014 arrival of a revised Kuga range – complete with a heartier 2.0-litre turbocharged engine – and the better-late-than-never arrival early in the year of the Mondeo (it was launched in the US two years ago) means there will be a freshness to dealerships for the first time in years.
But Ford’s big news is the Everest. Built in Thailand but engineered in Australia the new Ranger-based SUV will wear serious off-road hardware, and an independent coil sprung rear suspension system (in lieu of the Ranger’s leaf spring live axle) said to vastly improve dynamics.
For the icing on the cake, the Mustang will return to add much-needed image bling now that Ford’s FPV performjance arm has gone. An independent rear-end for the first time the new pony car (in four-cylinder turbo and V8) should mean the looks back up the driving dynamics.
CHALLENGES
DESPITE the sexy new arrivals, Ford still has the very real possibility of being unable to sell its wares. For years Ford has talked of having the best cars in various categories – and won awards to prove it – but the sales results rarely reflect it.Part of it could come down to positioning, with some odd moves sometimes turning buyers away (the decision to leave reversing cameras off most versions of the Kuga just as rivals were fitting them as standard is one example).
In theory, the slow sales problem should be an easy one to fix, but it never has been in the past. The issue of positioning is also a potential quick fix.
Key new ute contenders – the Mitsubishi Triton, Nissan Navara and Toyota HiLux – also threaten the Ranger, while the Focus slugs it out in what is currently the biggest segment, but one that is contracting and likely to contract further as new small SUVs flood the market.
Ford also runs the risk of cannabilising its own sales – yep, those ones it already doesn’t have enough of. There’s a good chance the all-new Mondeo will do most of what a Falcon buyer is looking for, all while using less fuel. Likewise, the fresher Everest appears as if it will do much of what the Territory will do, but with added ruggedness.
One dark horse is the imminent introduction of Japanese and South Korean free trade agreements, which will give prime rivals such as Hyundai, Mazda and Toyota more room to move with features and/or pricing on key competitors.
Grade: B-
– Back to The Wheels Report results
RESULTS
Struggles with some subjects. It’s too little too late for Mitsubishi in 2015. A new Triton will be a welcome sight for dealers, but the rest of the market is pulling away from the brand. New models can’t come soon enough – but most appear to be in 2016 and beyond.
Rank*: 7th Sales*: 54,132 (-9.3%) 2014 sales forecast: 63,500 Wheels prediction for 2015: 8th
*To end of October
THERE was a time when Mitsubishi used to vaguely keep the big boys – Toyota, Holden and Ford – honest in the sales race. It was a clear fourth place, but a well-positioned force ready to pounce – and always trying hard with some honest cars (the Magna was twice a Wheels COTY winner, in 1985 and 96).
It’s worth remembering, too, that in the late 1990s the locally produced Magna was selling more than the Commodore and Falcon do today.
But in the mid-noughties things went backwards for the Japanese brand, which then went on to shut down its local manufacturing operations in 2008.
Just as the shock of that was wearing off and buyers were learning to accept imported Mitsubishis, the GFC took hold and HQ in Japan decided to slash research and development costs, leaving the new model cupboard much more bare than it should have been.
Market share slipped in Australia and the brand is still paying for a lack of fresh metal in dealerships.
These days, Mitsubishi does a good line in mediocrity. The Lancer is feeling tired and the Outlander struggles against mid-size SUV favourites.
About the only segment Mitsubishi has big success in is with the ultra price-sensitive micro car class, where the Mirage is a sales leader. But the segment is down 27 percent and profit at that end of the market is slim – or non-existent. Basically it comes down to price.
Heavy discounting on the Triton has propped up sales of the brand’s biggest seller in light of intense competition.
OPPORTUNITIES
WELCOME relief comes early in 2015 with the all new Triton ute. It may bring with it a price advantage but promises big things in one of the country’s most important segments.
There’s also talk of a hybrid version – previewed in 2013 as the GR-HEV show car – although don’t expect to see it early in the new Triton’s life.
Later in the year could see the arrival of the new Challenger, which will again be based on the Triton but with a more traditional SUV body.
The Toyota RAV4-rivalling Outlander is also due for a facelift early in the year, with fresh styling front and rear and the usual array of new features.
But there seems little in the way of small cars and hatchbacks – still the biggest single segment of the new car market – with rumours of an all-new Lancer, likely to be produced off a Renault or Nissan platform as part of a strategic alliance announced in 2013.
But the ASX and Mirage – together accounting for about a quarter of Mitsubishi sales – look set to soldier on largely unchanged in the short term.
CHALLENGES
IN 2015 the pressure is on Mitsubishi, which appears to have little chance of growing market share in the short term. The lack of passenger vehicles from a brand with a proud history in some great small and medium cars – remember the Galant, Colt and once class-leading Mirage? – means pricing and other retail offers will be the main weapon to slow slipping sales.
While there’s some relief on the SUV and ute side of the business, it’s an area that’s under intense pressure from rivals keen to protect – or grow – their patch. Nissan has guns raised, while Hyundai and Kia are two others keen to capitalise on prey looking weak. The latter, in particular, could make life tough for Mitsubishi, with its industry-leading seven-year warranty outgunning the still-impressive five-year cover for Mitsus.
Then there’s Toyota, which is keen to regain ground lost in the ute market with the imminent arrival of a new HiLux; the Japanese rivals is also keen to claw back market share – and it doesn’t care where it comes from.
Mitsubishi may soon have more room to move on pricing with some key models – Lancer, ASX and Outlander – once the Japanese free trade agreement is implemented (timing has not been set).
Grade: D
– Back to The Wheels Report results
Cars are resonating more with buyers and for first time in a decade or so the whole organisation seems to be pulling in same direction.
RESULTS
Has mended naughty ways. On paper 2014 a disappointment for Nissan, but what’s happened behind the scenes positions it well for future growth. Cars are resonating more with buyers and for first time in a decade or so the whole organisation seems to be pulling in same direction.
Rank*: 6th Sales*: 54,973 (-15.1%) 2014 sales forecast: 65,000 Wheels prediction for 2015: 6th *To end of October 2014
IT WASN’T long ago Nissan was talking of cracking 100,000 sales, which would have made it a top three player in Australia. Things went amiss, though, and this year it won’t even hit 70,000.
But 2014 isn’t an indicative year for Nissan, which was busy clearing 50,000 cars from paddocks around the country and getting its house in order under the guidance of new boss Richard Emery, who has brought much needed hope, long-term planning and enthusiasm to the once hard-charging Japanese brand.
While it’s strong in SUVs and utes, Nissan’s passenger car range has underperformed, with hallucinations of the revived Pulsar topping the sales charts crashing back to reality once the car went on sale early in 2013; it’s only the seventh-best selling small car and has never come close to knocking off the dominant Mazda3 and Toyota Corolla.
Fortunately a strong suite of SUVs – with Juke, Murano, Pathfinder, Qashqai, X-Trail and two versions of the Patrol, Nissan has more individual SUV models than any other brand – has helped bolster sales and provide a solid foundation.
Despite a broad model range (there are 19 in total), Nissan relies heavily on core cars such as the Pulsar, Navara, X-Trail and Qashqai – between them they account for more than half of the brand’s sales.
OPPORTUNITIES
A NEW Navara is the big news for Nissan. Fresh styling and vast improvements to the way it drives promise to lift it towards the pointy end of the load lugger field.
Unsurprisingly, Nissan is expecting big things from the crucial new model.
The Micra is also due for a facelift earlier in the year, although it’s competing in a light car segment that is out of favour with buyers.
But Nissan is hoping to address one of those rare problems in the car industry – excessive demand – with the Qashqai and X-Trail SUVs. The new family-focused duo arrived in 2014 (the Qashqai replaced Dualis) and buyers have been queuing for them. Dealers are hoping to have more in stock throughout 2015, which should naturally boost sales.
Otherwise it’s largely quiet from Nissan.
But the Nismo performance heroes are slowly warming up and could make an appearance before the end of the year. While each will be a niche product – with Juke, 370Z and GT-R the most likely to initially have the performance wand waved over them – they would add fizz and fireworks to a brand that’s already got its fair share from the GT-R.
CHALLENGES
AFTER years of anger and angst, Nissan has its dealers back on side, which is crucial in the car game. That alone should help the sales graph point in the right direction – but in a natural, rather than forced, way.
That should see Nissan pull comfortably clear of Mitsubishi, which it’s only just ahead of in the sales race for 2014. And Volkswagen isn’t close enough to strike, while a hard charging Ford should hold on to its fifth place on the sales chart.
But what happens to Nissan’s market share is another story. Its SUV range is fresh and enjoying strong demand – with additional supply of the all important Qashqai and X-Trail expected in 2015 – and the new Navara will enjoy the shiny limelight in a market segment where 10-year waits between new models are the norm.
But the Pulsar is getting attacked from all sides in a hugely competitive small-car segment. And the Altima – the car that is (vaguely) the face of Nissan’s lukewarm V8 Supercar campaign – is up against a big headwind in the form of the Camry, Commodore and Falcon, three locally produced large cars chasing volume rather than outright profit as each winds down local production.
Nissan also won’t be celebrating two imminent free trade agreements – with Japan and South Korea – as much as other brands. Many of its models (Pulsar, Altima and some Navara) are already sourced from Thailand where an FTA is in place. Others are out of countries where the import tariff looks set to stay for the short to medium term – the Qashqai from the UK and Micra from India, for example.
The Japanese-made X-Trail and Pathfinder are exceptions; something that would allow price reductions in the order of three percent (the other option is to add equipment).
Grade: B
– Back to The Wheels Report results
RESULTS
Always good in class and now listening in the playground, too. Renewed focus on keeping owners happy, manageable growth and more engaged dealer network, Volkswagen now in reasonable shape after challenging 18 months. How it responds to competition in premium mainstream market will define growth, but well placed to surpass Mitsubishi in local sales race.
Rank*: 8th Sales*: 38,016 (+1.4%) 2014 sales forecast: 44,500 Wheels prediction for 2015: 7th *To end of October 2014
SINCE 2000, Volkswagen’s local sales have grown more than 400 percent to the point where the brand is a solid top 10 player. The long-running and well known Golf has been fundamental to that growth and is the brand’s best-selling model by at least two-to-one. These days the Golf outsells all small cars except the Mazda3, Toyota Corolla and Hyundai i30, which is a solid effort considering there are about 30 competitors, including the locally made Holden Cruze.
But Volkwagen has progressed beyond relying on the Golf, with a broad range of vehicles that includes the Amarok ute, Tiguan and Touareg SUVs and a more competitive Passat mid-size sedan and wagon. All have added decent volume to the range.
Volkswagen has also earned itself a reputation for poor customer service and costly repairs, mainly with DSG dual-clutch automatic transmissions that were prone to failure. A high-profile recall in 2013 slowed the previously steep sales growth to a trickle as the brand focused on improving customer service and after-sales support.
Volkswagen has also cut back some models in its range, including the manual-only Up that brought a price premium that few buyers at the bottom end of the market would swallow.
OPPORTUNITIES
THERE’S only one all new passenger model for Volkswagen in 2015 – the Passat – and it doesn’t arrive until the fourth quarter. When it gets here, the top-ranking European brand is keen to see the mid-sizer expand its repertoire and better encroach on prime rivals, such as the Mazda 6 and Subaru Liberty.
As before, it will also partially compete with lower-end prestige sedans from the likes of Mercedes-Benz and BMW.
Regarding Volkswagen vans, Volkswagen ushers in a new Caddy and Transporter throughout the year.
There will also be derivatives of existing models that could spur things along. The Golf Alltrack adds some off-road nous to the popular wagon body in the hope of tempting some from the smaller SUV brigade, a segment that’s booming.
The rorty Polo GTI is another that will add sparkle – and a manual gearbox – to the updated Polo range, which itself is hoping to attract more buyers in 2015.
CHALLENGES
VOLKSWAGEN is regaining its growth mojo after a year of consolidation in 2013, albeit without the fervour it had in the past.
Securing enough cars will be an early challenge, with the Polo and Golf in solid demand that has not wholly been reflected in the sales figures.
At the same time, Volkswagen will have its eyes on all manner of volume players, especially Mazda, a brand that talks to like-minded customers.
Unsurprisingly that means it has others keen to stop its success.
A key target is the Golf, a Wheels COTY winner in 2013. Its success has not gone unnoticed and the likes of Holden will be keen to crash its party with the new Euro-sourced Astra that’s coming soon.
The small car market generally is under intense pressure, dropping five percent throughout 2014 as small SUVs enjoy unprecedented growth (the smaller SUV segment grew 17 percent in 2014). Given Volkswagen relies so heavily on the Golf it will mean more effort is required to maintain sales.
The Amarok is another that will have its work cut out in 2015, with new ute arrivals from Nissan, Mitsubishi and Toyota likely to ramp up the pressure.
Volkswagen also has some older models to contend with, including the Touareg and Tiguan SUVs, each of which will be battling more competitors as their respective segments continue to grow.
Without additional firepower in what is an increasingly important – and growing – segment it leaves the German brand exposed to hard charging rivals.
Score: B+
RESULTS
A good listener capitalising on solid groundwork. Settling in new arrivals key to Subaru’s 2015. Careful management also required to protect existing sales, but history suggests it will be a target easily achieved. Levorg wagon squaring up as welcome addition to slim but powerful range.
Rank*: 9th Sales*: 33,269 (+3.0%) Forecast for 2014 : 39,000 Wheels prediction for 2014: 9th *To end October 2014
LONG a favourite with private buyers, Subaru performs strongly within the narrow model range it has – its seven-model range is built off three platforms.
Where once it relied heavily on the Liberty sedan and wagon for a large chunk of sales, the stagnation of the medium car market has forced some lateral thinking. One solution was the Outback, a higher-riding version of the Liberty wagon that adds the obligatory body kit to make it look a bit tougher in the driveway.
But between them the Liberty and Outback are nothing like the sales powerhouses they once were, especially considering part of the Liberty volume is bolstered by the seven-seat Exiga, which gets a unique body but still uses the Liberty moniker.
Instead it’s the ever-popular Forester and the brilliantly positioned Impreza hatch-based XV – a higher riding Impreza that’s won hearts for its chunky looks – that have delivered growth for the Japanese brand.
The arrival of the BRZ sports car – which saw the end of Subaru’s all-wheel-drive-is-a-must philosophy – added some icing on a solid but tasty cake.
But at the same time Subaru has lost its seven-seat Tribeca, which quietly slinked off the market early in 2014.
OPPORTUNITIES
THE year ahead holds plenty of excitement for Subaru in terms of new arrivals.
It starts with the all new Liberty and Outback, which arrive in January with hopes of reviving some former sales glory in the medium segment. Each will be available with either a 2.5-litre four-cylinder or horizontally opposed 3.6-litre, the latter picking up Subaru’s “Lineartronic” continuously variable transmission. A diesel is expected later, too.
Perhaps more importantly, the new Liberty/Outback aren’t quite as, err, challenging in the styling department.
The Impreza facelift available overseas is also expected in Australia sometime during the year. The most notable change is a revised front bumper that adds more aggression, although you should get more features for your money. One is likely to be EyeSight, Subaru’s active safety system that can recognise a car stopping ahead and automatically brake the vehicle.
Similar tweaks are likely in the XV range, too.
One car Subaru is hoping it can get is the elegant Levorg wagon. To sit below the Liberty – it’s closer in size to Libertys of a decade ago – it could tempt some of the Subaru faithful back into the brand.
The Levorg is officially reserved for the Japanese market, but it’s understood Australia is hopeful of importing it here.
CHALLENGES
One advantage of a small model range is being able to commit more time to it, something Subaru has done well for years. But in 2015 it could face more competition than it has for a while.
In the small SUV segment, for example, the XV is king but it’ll soon be up against more formidable opposition from the likes of Mazda, Jeep and Honda.
That in turn could put pressure on the Impreza, which to be fair has plenty of volume potential.
When it comes to Subaru’s top seller, the Forester, there’s work to be done to defend the recently arrived Nissan X-Trail and Jeep Cherokee, as well as the soon-to-be-updated Mazda CX-5.
Mazda and Volkswagen both have aspirations of growth for 2015, and present Subaru’s strongest challenge.
Score: B+
– Back to The Wheels Report results
RESULTS
Needs to learn to keep its head down. The HR-V should bring some sales upside but it’s difficult to see Honda growing too much without other new arrivals or some tempting offers.
Rank: Sales position 2014 YTD: 10th Sales*: 26,259 (-23.0%) 2014 sales forecast: 30,500 Wheels prediction for 2015: 11th *To end of October 2014
LESS than a decade ago Honda was the fifth best-selling brand in Australia, with aspirations of hitting 80,000 annual sales by 2010 on the way to an eventual tally of 100,000 sales. The 2010 total dribbled to just 40,000 cars, and last year less than a third of the grander total was achieved.
Needless to say it’s been a massive wake-up for Honda Australia, which was hit hard by head office’s decision to pull back on vehicle development during the GFC.
The once dominant Civic has been hammered in the small car sales race. This is partly because it was tasked with taking on the big boys without a hatchback for years – only the sedan was produced in Thailand, so that’s what came here. The hatch was eventually reborn in 2012 – thanks to Honda’s UK factory – but its prices were far from competitive.
Honda’s grand plans of going upmarket – first with the Legend and later with an abandoned attempt to sell its US Acura brand here – also didn’t help.
The Accord and Accord Euro also suffered in the medium segment, while the CR-V lost the firepower it once had against SUV rivals.
More recently, Honda has struggled to capitalise on market growth, and its former lustre as a premium Japanese brand has faded.
OPPORTUNITIES
HIGH on the Honda hit list is the return of the HR-V. The compact model is designed to shake up the entry-level SUV category and has aspirations of being one of the best sellers in its class. It’ll arrive in February and promises to add to the brand’s sales early in the year.
The chunky five-door will get a 1.8-litre engine and an interior that promises to be more functional than the average cheap and cheerful soft-roader.
The Civic hatch is also due for a facelift in the first half of the year, albeit with a price premium over the Thai-sourced sedan that takes advantage of a free trade agreement that dodges the five percent import tariff.
Honda also has to live without some of its models, killed off as part of a consolidation. The Accord Euro is no longer, while the City is a victim of slow sales of small sedans.
CHALLENGES
HONDA’S biggest weakness could be itself. The brand is brash about its sales forecasts for 2015, suggesting the HR-V should add close to 10,000 sales annually.
That would translate to annual sales of 40,000.
But there’s also a very real chance the new compact SUV could take a chunk out of other models in the Honda showroom, specifically the Civic and CR-V. While each is different, there could be enough people who decide the HR-V will happily replace the other two models.
At least the new Jazz – complete with a standard reversing camera and one of the bigger light car bodies – should add to the tally.
But dealers will be without models that previously helped bolster the overall sales tally, such as the Euro and City. The downside is incremental sales, but there could be upside in keeping minds more focused on the main game and coaxing buyers back to core models.
Then there are the rivals. Mazda continues to trounce Honda at every opportunity and it’s difficult to think some of its former buyers haven’t transitioned over to the Japanese rival.
Hyundai, too, is a brand on the march and is gaining traction with more discerning buyers.
Besides, it’s not the first time Honda has been wide of the mark when it comes to forecasting its popularity – although we’d love to be proved wrong.
Grade: B-
With stable management and excellent vehicles, there’s every chance incremental growth will continue.
RESULTS
Hard work has paid off, but needs to stay focused. Momentum and longevity count for plenty at this end of market and Mercedes has full dance card for foreseeable future. With stable management and excellent vehicles, there’s every chance incremental growth will continue.
Sales*: 25,837 (+14.6%) Rank*: 11th 2014 sales forecast: 30,500 Wheels prediction for 2014: 10th *To end October 2014
A DECADE ago, Mercedes-Benz was known for limousines and expensive luxury sedans. It still does those but has also found time to drive over BMW’s backyard, its C-Class now ruling the category once dominated by the 3 Series.
At times the C-Class has outsold all mid-sized cars in the country except the Toyota Camry, and even the 2012 arrival of a new 3 Series couldn’t arrest the three-pointed star’s momentum.
Indeed, few brands have embraced downsizing as heartily as Mercedes-Benz. This year the brand has grown almost 15 percent off the back of a new small car range. The A-Class, B-Class, CLA and recently arrived GLA now account for more than a third of Mercedes sales.
But much of Mercedes-Benz’s recent local sales success is down to the positioning of the high-performance AMG brand, which grabs almost 10 percent of Mercedes-Benz passenger vehicle sales. Unlike BMW’s M or Audi’s RS, the AMG brand is sprinkled across almost the entire passenger car range, even making it into some models that really aren’t up to it – G-Class, we’re looking at you.
As well as incrementally growing sales, the AMG onslaught has helped reposition the once staid German brand and cement it as fun, exciting and, crucially, attractive to younger buyers.
The brand has cleverly – but carefully – also given buyers a taste of AMG through the various option packs that include wheels or body kits on regular models.
OPPORTUNITIES
BARELY a month passes when Mercedes-Benz isn’t adding a new body style or variant, and 2015 isn’t shaping up to be much different.
The first step for the year will be bedding in the new arrivals – GLA, S-Class and the best-selling C-Class – and realising their full sales potential. It’s the C in particular that holds most hope, with the Mercedes-AMG-badged C63 version – complete with new twin-turbo V8 – likely to add momentum when it arrives later in the year. Other Mercedes-AMG versions, including the S63 Coupe, will arrive to bolster the top end.
Speaking of the hi-po division, the Mercedes-AMG GT – effectively the replacement for the SLS or Gullwing – should ensure the brand’s image gets an appropriate kick along.
There will also be the CLA Shooting Brake – that’s a wagon to us Aussies – as yet another body style.
But the Mercedes-badged SUV range promises to get the biggest lift in 2015. International speculation suggests the ML off-roader will arrive by the end of the year, renamed as a GLE and bringing with it a coupe version to take on BMW’s X6 and possibly tempt buyers away from the Porsche Cayenne.
But the one Mercedes Australia can’t wait to get its hands on is the GLC, the long-awaited replacement for the left-hand-drive only GLK compact SUV and a car that will finally give Benz a rival to the BMW X3 and Audi Q5 (the Q5 is Audi’s second-best selling model, while for BMW the X3 is third).
Considering Audi and BMW garner 39 and 42 percent of their sales respectively from SUVs, there’s clearly potential for Benz. Of Mercedes’ luxury models, just 18 percent of sales are SUVs.
CHALLENGES
MERCEDES has plenty of momentum in the luxury car market. Combined with more than 100 years of heritage, a reputation for innovation and high levels of safety, it’s difficult to see sales going backwards anytime soon.
That said, the brand is well aware of the challenges in the luxury market. BMW is keen to claw back share and Audi – once the third luxury brand – is within firing distance of the top luxury position in Australia, a target it has set itself for 2020. Then there’s Lexus, which has underperformed but is introducing more competitive luxury cars.
But one of the biggest unknowns is a potential change to vehicle import regulations. The all-but-guaranteed end of the five percent import tariff will have a big impact on $300,000-plus cars but it’s the potential for cheaper imports that has luxury brands such as Mercedes-Benz on edge.
The increase in the value of our dollar means Australia has long been joked of as ‘Treasure Island’ by some car company execs. In short, we pay exorbitant prices for top-end cars, something that has piqued the government’s attention.
There are currently reviews examining the viability of opening the market and allowing more near-new grey imports as well as parallel imports (the same model imported from another right-hand-drive market). While the government says it has “no intention of allowing Australia to become the dumping ground”, any support for opening up imports could have big consequences for the existing luxury status quo.
