Opinion: The paradox of what creates a modern classic

The grass-is-greener effect, the Anna Karenina principle; all terms for the very common human phenomenon of wanting what you can’t have.

I’ve been mulling over this idea recently, having assisted Editor Enright on the farewell photoshoot for an upcoming R35 GT-R and Audi R8 V10 feature. Despite their age, both cars are very worthy and capable packages that you’d love to be able to buy. Sadly, the opportunity is passing as both are not long for the Australian market. Thus, if you can’t find runout stock, you’re only option is second hand – which raises other questions.

The laws of supply and demand are fickle at best but, when it comes to products as emotionally charged as cars, logic can often take a leave of absence.

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Shortly after the final Australian-bound shipment of R35 GT-Rs made landfall back in October last year, a shocking number of Millenium Jade-coloured GT-Rs have been spotted on various classifieds websites and numerous GT-R ‘buy, swap and sell’ Facebook groups. Delivery mileage and pre-delivery plastics sit proud and the asking prices, ranging from around $500k to almost $1 million, are simply gobsmacking.

This year’s GT-R is essentially last year’s GT-R with new paint. Yet asking prices often exceed a 200 per cent, or more, premium over the car’s as-new $256,700 MSRP – an ambitious flip usually reserved for the likes of GT Porsches or CS-badged BMWs.

I’m happy to see Nissan’s ageing sporting heroes enjoy such fanfare in their twilight, but the confounding matter is that people had plenty of opportunities to get one before now, as VFACTS data suggested little demand with less than a handful of cars sold per month. Of course, the GT-R nameplate is hot property right now in the midst of the recent explosion of JDM culture, but the actual catalyst for the recent supercar-shaming asking prices was simply Nissan Australia saying ‘you can’t get one anymore’. It’s often the case, however, that lacklustre sales create a second wind of scarcity-fuelled demand.

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From full-size to scale, this happens a lot in cars.

When Biante Models announced pre-orders for Nick Percat’s 2017 Pride-themed VF Commodore, the response was underwhelming. As a result, the rainbow-clad Supercar has emerged as one of the rarest collectibles in recent times.

The BMW E60 M5 is an interesting case study. The North American market, one of M Division’s biggest, demanded the availability of a manual gearbox to which BMW courteously delivered. Yet, just 1296 customers (1364 globally, if you include Canada) took up BMW’s kind offer, representing just 6.6 per cent of all 20,584 vehicles made.

The manual uptake for the 2014-19 F80 generation M3 and M4 was lower still, at just 2.7 per cent – lower than the three per cent of manual uptake that led Lamborghini to axe the manual when the Gallardo ended production. Yet, for both cars, it’s the manually shifted examples that command significant premiums on the second-hand market.

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Thankfully BMW is keeping the faith, for now at least, with the non-Competition M3 and M4 (and next-gen M2). We’ve spent some time with the base-spec manual M3 recently, but we’ll save vehicle impressions for later.

You’ll read more about it in next month’s Performance Car of the Year issue, but it’s a deeply intriguing car and will likely emerge as an ironed-on future classic. Why? Because, while everyone likes to say they’d buy a manual if it’s offered, the numbers show that very few people actually do. The G80 M3 could well be the last manual non-electrified M3 you’re ever able to buy and, if the previous generation’s figures are anything to go by, it’s going to be a seriously rare beast one day. In today’s spiralling market, that’s often all it takes for a model to take off well past its natural depreciation curve.

Remember it pays to break the mould sometimes, so the next time you’re optioning a new car, think twice before selecting white, silver or black. What’s cause for today’s depreciation often turns out to be the fever dream of tomorrow’s collectors.